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.You must anticipate the bigness of what you are doing in advance, while there are still sufficient time and resources to make course corrections to improve your own bigness factors.Whether it is the next greatest disk drive or a new medical device, it seems that the bigger the idea, the bigger the changes that are going on in the market.It is only natural that spending increases during times when things are changing in markets.In the 1990s, when decentralization and departmental computing were in vogue, companies spent billions to acquire the technologies needed to support these systems.In today's markets when the opposite is going on and centralization is sought, companies are again spending large sums to reach these goals.Changes are going on in markets all the time.The best big plays that we have seen are the ones that tap into these naturally occurring changes and use them as energy sources to propel the big play.A simple surfing metaphor works well.You have a surfboard and want to use it.You would not take your board to a beach on a small lake because there are no significant waves there.You go to an ocean beach that has huge waves.The bigger the better.You do this because surfing involves successfully tapping into the energy of the wave so that you can ride its crest.Simple idea.Straightforward plan.You go to the ocean because that is where the energy is.So too with the big play.Your job is to define your big play as the method in by which you transfer energy from the market to suit your own business purpose.Find what is changing in the market, tap into it, and make it work for you.So where do Expert Interviews we talk so much about come into this? You already know the answer.To develop ideas for big plays, your job is to determine now what the big changes are on the horizon.What is going to be changing just as your innovation enters the market? Do you have the right surfboard to ride the big wave? To determine that, you are going to look into the future.And Expert Interviews are the way to find out today what is going to be changing tomorrow.Chapter 6Finding the FutureThose who can't remember the past are condemned to repeat it.-George SantayanaPaying AttentionIt is more than amazing that so many companies destroy their already limited chances for success because they understand little about their market and their competition.A good marketer spins his story as if his company is unique-that is the job and we expect it.But there is no excuse for being ignorant of the actual market or the competition.Many companies say something like "we're making stuff for branch offices to use," and when we ask how many branch offices there are in, say, the United States, the marketers do not seem to have a clue (by the way, the answer is that there are about 1.3 million branch offices, depending on how you count them).And, better yet, we've lost count of the times that companies tell us who their competitors are and leave out the really big ones, like Microsoft.And, when we ask, they'll say something like; "Golly, customers don't like them." It is one thing to be ignorant of the market history, but it's quite another thing to not understand the present market conditions, including competitors, and to not have a fact based prediction of what the future will be like.Many marketers want to think that there had been total vacuum in their space before their company came on the scene.That is their egos talking and is usually far from the truth.Wanting to believe that you are the first to arrive is not a good excuse for not knowing about what is going on right now-especially when competitors are working hard at letting people know what they plan to do.For software companies our favorite question is: "Can you tell us again how you're going to beat Microsoft in this market?" Truthful statements presented in a nominally honest matter may lead otherwise reasonable people to creatively reach wrong conclusions.But there is no excuse for being ignorant of either history or competition.As philosopher George Santayana once famously observed: "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." Ask the right questions; do not just accept the conventional wisdom.Do your homework and the future will be easier to glimpse.Successful entrepreneurs have always learned from the mistakes of their predecessors in order to avoid making them a second (or third) time.This is the most important research you can do.The right strategy will inevitably follow.Treating Microsoft SeriouslyPart of getting it right is knowing when the light at the end of the tunnel really is a freight train heading your way.We are continually amazed at the testosterone lemming instinct that has young male entrepreneurs bent on beating Microsoft (or Cisco, Intel, pick your favorite 900-pound gorilla).Microsoft in 2004 spent $6.5B on R&D, and they have shown repeatedly that once they understand a problem, they keep plugging away and ultimately get it right enough to smoke the competition (as was the case with Novell, Sun, Apple, Netscape, to name just a few).The truth is that you can compete with these giants, but you have to use the jujitsu technique of using their own weight against them (i.e., do something they chose not to do for their sensible business reasons).If you think you can beat them in a fair fight then you will discover what it feels like to have 900 pounds sitting on your chest.Netscape is a great example [ Pobierz całość w formacie PDF ]
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.You must anticipate the bigness of what you are doing in advance, while there are still sufficient time and resources to make course corrections to improve your own bigness factors.Whether it is the next greatest disk drive or a new medical device, it seems that the bigger the idea, the bigger the changes that are going on in the market.It is only natural that spending increases during times when things are changing in markets.In the 1990s, when decentralization and departmental computing were in vogue, companies spent billions to acquire the technologies needed to support these systems.In today's markets when the opposite is going on and centralization is sought, companies are again spending large sums to reach these goals.Changes are going on in markets all the time.The best big plays that we have seen are the ones that tap into these naturally occurring changes and use them as energy sources to propel the big play.A simple surfing metaphor works well.You have a surfboard and want to use it.You would not take your board to a beach on a small lake because there are no significant waves there.You go to an ocean beach that has huge waves.The bigger the better.You do this because surfing involves successfully tapping into the energy of the wave so that you can ride its crest.Simple idea.Straightforward plan.You go to the ocean because that is where the energy is.So too with the big play.Your job is to define your big play as the method in by which you transfer energy from the market to suit your own business purpose.Find what is changing in the market, tap into it, and make it work for you.So where do Expert Interviews we talk so much about come into this? You already know the answer.To develop ideas for big plays, your job is to determine now what the big changes are on the horizon.What is going to be changing just as your innovation enters the market? Do you have the right surfboard to ride the big wave? To determine that, you are going to look into the future.And Expert Interviews are the way to find out today what is going to be changing tomorrow.Chapter 6Finding the FutureThose who can't remember the past are condemned to repeat it.-George SantayanaPaying AttentionIt is more than amazing that so many companies destroy their already limited chances for success because they understand little about their market and their competition.A good marketer spins his story as if his company is unique-that is the job and we expect it.But there is no excuse for being ignorant of the actual market or the competition.Many companies say something like "we're making stuff for branch offices to use," and when we ask how many branch offices there are in, say, the United States, the marketers do not seem to have a clue (by the way, the answer is that there are about 1.3 million branch offices, depending on how you count them).And, better yet, we've lost count of the times that companies tell us who their competitors are and leave out the really big ones, like Microsoft.And, when we ask, they'll say something like; "Golly, customers don't like them." It is one thing to be ignorant of the market history, but it's quite another thing to not understand the present market conditions, including competitors, and to not have a fact based prediction of what the future will be like.Many marketers want to think that there had been total vacuum in their space before their company came on the scene.That is their egos talking and is usually far from the truth.Wanting to believe that you are the first to arrive is not a good excuse for not knowing about what is going on right now-especially when competitors are working hard at letting people know what they plan to do.For software companies our favorite question is: "Can you tell us again how you're going to beat Microsoft in this market?" Truthful statements presented in a nominally honest matter may lead otherwise reasonable people to creatively reach wrong conclusions.But there is no excuse for being ignorant of either history or competition.As philosopher George Santayana once famously observed: "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." Ask the right questions; do not just accept the conventional wisdom.Do your homework and the future will be easier to glimpse.Successful entrepreneurs have always learned from the mistakes of their predecessors in order to avoid making them a second (or third) time.This is the most important research you can do.The right strategy will inevitably follow.Treating Microsoft SeriouslyPart of getting it right is knowing when the light at the end of the tunnel really is a freight train heading your way.We are continually amazed at the testosterone lemming instinct that has young male entrepreneurs bent on beating Microsoft (or Cisco, Intel, pick your favorite 900-pound gorilla).Microsoft in 2004 spent $6.5B on R&D, and they have shown repeatedly that once they understand a problem, they keep plugging away and ultimately get it right enough to smoke the competition (as was the case with Novell, Sun, Apple, Netscape, to name just a few).The truth is that you can compete with these giants, but you have to use the jujitsu technique of using their own weight against them (i.e., do something they chose not to do for their sensible business reasons).If you think you can beat them in a fair fight then you will discover what it feels like to have 900 pounds sitting on your chest.Netscape is a great example [ Pobierz całość w formacie PDF ]